Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan has formed an exploratory committee to run for president. The former Republican, who left the party last year, is seeking to lead the Libertarian ticket. He’s unlikely to get a large percentage of the vote or have any impact on who wins the election. The […] Read more »
Older voters could offer Biden a new path to the White House
The dominant assumption among Democrats for years has been that the best way to expand the Electoral College map is to expand the electorate by turning out millions of additional young people and minorities. But Joe Biden’s campaign may be pointing Democrats toward a different path to widening the presidential […] Read more »
Is Trump Slipping In The Polls Because Of COVID-19?
A slew of recent polling in swing states shows President Trump losing ground to presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew asks whether the narrative of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis has already been cemented, and what Trump could do to […] Read more »
USA Today/Suffolk Poll: Six months out, Biden jumps to lead over Trump amid coronavirus concerns
Six months before Election Day, the coronavirus pandemic has done what impeachment did not: Cost President Donald Trump his advantage over Joe Biden in the 2020 campaign. A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll shows the former vice president leading Trump nationwide by 6 percentage points, 44% to 38%, a shift […] Read more »
New York State: Coronavirus Pandemic Pushes Cuomo to Record High Ratings
• Coronavirus Pandemic Pushes Cuomo to Record High Ratings; Voters Trust Cuomo over Trump on NY Reopening 78-16%• Half of NYers Know Someone Who’s Tested Positive; One-Third Know Someone Who’s Died from Coronavirus; Both Numbers Higher Downstate than Upstate• Near Universal Support for Gov’s Orders to Extend NY ‘On Pause’ […] Read more »
Tweets of Note
While 2020 may very well defy historical patterns, in elections over the past five decades an incumbent president's approval rating at ~200 days out has been a remarkably strong predictor of his ultimate vote share. Trump's current rating puts him in Carter & GHW Bush territory. pic.twitter.com/pyvZA1q6St — Patrick Egan […] Read more »