The 2020 election is shaping up to be the rare one that isn’t almost exclusively about the economy. More Americans, 45%, say Covid-19 is the most important problem facing the country than they have about any non-economic issue at any point since 2001, except for terrorism in October 2001. We’ve […] Read more »
Why Trump’s shadow over the race for Senate control is so long
… Senate elections are becoming more about the party and less about the individual candidates. It’s become harder and harder for even the most talented Senate candidates to win, in effect, behind enemy lines, in states that usually vote the other way in presidential races. … The hardening alignment between […] Read more »
Justin Amash Could Cause Some Trouble In November
The 2020 presidential election just got its first notable third-party challenger. Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian. And while we won’t know whether Amash wins his new party’s nomination […] Read more »
Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation
On Friday, former Vice President Joe Biden personally denied a sexual assault allegation by his former Senate staffer Tara Reade. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team reviews how elected Democrats and voters are reacting to the accusation so far, and what it means for Biden politically. […] Read more »
The six states at the center of the battleground map six months from Election Day
… While the coronavirus has tossed the mechanics of politicking in flux for the foreseeable future, leaders in both parties and officials with President Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s campaigns are surveying a relatively stable political battlefield that will be concentrated largely in just about a half dozen states: the […] Read more »
Trump needs two electoral blocs to win. The pandemic is driving a wedge between them.
President Trump has a math problem. Given his strategy to govern mostly for his base, Trump must walk an electoral tightrope to win in November. He cannot afford to lose voters motivated by economic issues. He also cannot afford to lose seniors, who supported him in 2016 by a nine-point […] Read more »