In the vernacular of political communications, a memo is essentially an attempt to nerd up a news release. Sometimes campaigns create memos meant to be leaked, increasing the chances that a reporter will pick up the story. Often, though, campaign memos serve as short-form white papers, aimed at impressing reporters […] Read more »
Trump’s Self-Inflicted Wound: Losing Swing Voters As He Plays to His Base
Since the day he was sworn into office, President Trump has pursued policies and practiced politics with a single-minded focus on bedrock Republicans, showing little interest in appealing to independent voters. That has made him one of the most powerful figures ever in his party, and rewarded him with strong […] Read more »
Trump’s reelection campaign is in crisis
The past three months have been a catastrophe for President Trump. With the odds against his reelection lengthening, and just 126 days until the election, the time to turn things around is dwindling. The president could still win a narrow victory, but only if everything breaks right. … The president’s […] Read more »
Why the Dukakis 1988 analogy is baloney
Most observers writing about President Donald Trump’s weak reelection standing note that George H.W. Bush was in a deeper hole yet managed to crawl out to win comfortably in 1988. They make the point that November is still months away, and things can change. But the 1988 case isn’t useful […] Read more »
Enthusiasm and Unity Update, Polling Methodology
This memorandum lays out two important sets of facts as we head toward the home stretch of the 2020 campaign for president. First, there is clear and irrefutable evidence that Joe Biden’s candidacy has a decided lack of enthusiastic support as compared to President Trump. Second, the public polling on […] Read more »
Trump campaign scrambling to revive the president’s imperiled reelection bid
President Trump and his campaign team are grappling with how to resuscitate his imperiled reelection effort amid a wave of polling that shows him badly trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden and losing traction even among core constituencies. … Numerous national polls show Trump losing significant ground with seniors and […] Read more »