… In any single poll, it is difficult for pollsters to reach a significant number of voters who supported third-party candidates in 2016, making it impossible to trace their preferences now. And Mr. Trump — who faced vocal opposition that year from some prominent Republicans and won anyway — remains […] Read more »
A simple forecast suggests a Democratic sweep in 2020
The covid-19-driven economic collapse, upheaval over racial politics in the United States and President Trump’s consistently low popularity ratings have given Democrats an opening to win the presidency and both houses of Congress in 2020. Our prediction, based on economic indicators and presidential approval ratings, provides a simple, albeit early, […] Read more »
Were Democratic Voters Right About Biden’s Electability?
The idea that there is often a difference between the candidate you love the most and the candidate who has the best chance to win is a long-standing fixture of nomination politics, especially in the Democratic Party. But the assumption that “electability” is a quality shared by some potential nominees […] Read more »
Trump’s misreading the map, looking for Electoral College votes in some of the wrong places
If November’s election were held this week, polling averages suggest Joe Biden would sweep President Donald Trump in all six states Trump carried by less than five points in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden is also running highly competitively in the four states Trump carried […] Read more »
President Trump is losing support among young white working-class voters
So far in his re-election campaign, President Trump has stubbornly refused to expand his base, playing instead to a brand of populist conservatism that rests on solid support from white working-class voters. But a Pew Research Center survey released at the end of June suggests that voters in this group […] Read more »
The politics of race are shifting, and politicians are struggling to keep pace
Race has been a defining issue in American politics since before the country formally came into existence, a dividing line marked by generations of struggle and conflict. Today, the issue is back at the center of a national debate, this time amid shifting attitudes and heightened expectations that are demanding […] Read more »