American politicians, including presidents, have often sought to exploit the nation’s racial and ethnic divides for political gain. During the Trump era, voters are not responding as expected. The gap in presidential vote preference between white and nonwhite voters has shrunk by a surprising 16 percentage points since 2016, according […] Read more »
CNBC All America Survey: Biden holds a big lead over Trump, but race could tighten
Former Vice President Joe Biden holds an 11-point lead over President Donald Trump one week before the election, but the CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows the race could tighten. Biden leads Trump by 51% to 40%, a 2-point increase from the June poll and 6 points better than in April. […] Read more »
Trump Wants to Pick Off Nevada. But Biden Is Holding a Lead, Our Poll Shows.
Joseph R. Biden Jr. has a steady lead over President Trump in Nevada, a state that has been shading blue in recent elections but that Mr. Trump is hoping to flip, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Tuesday. … With just a week until Election Day […] Read more »
The polls could be wrong. But that may help Biden, not just Trump.
As Election Day approaches and President Donald Trump continues to trail Joe Biden by high single digits both nationally and in key states, their respective bases are buzzing with either hope or dread that “the polls could be wrong again.” In truth, public opinion polls are imperfect instruments, and there’s […] Read more »
Why the GOP hold on Texas is loosening
The huge surge of early voting in Texas’ rapidly growing cities and inner suburbs likely marks the end of unchallenged Republican dominance in America’s second largest state — a seismic shift in the nation’s electoral landscape. Even if President Donald Trump retains enough rural strength to hold Texas in next […] Read more »
Final Forecast: Results from Two Methods of Predicting the 2020 Presidential Election
Key Points• A presidential election forecasting model based on the president’s approval rating, first published at the Crystal Ball in early August, continues to show Joe Biden as a favorite in next week’s presidential election.• An average of current state-level polling produces a very similar Electoral College projection.• These forecasting […] Read more »