A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016. When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Mr. Trump would win the 2016 election, […] Read more »
Georgia’s Senate Races Both Move to Toss-up
Key Points• Georgia’s two Senate races move to Toss-up.• They may be the only two races we leave in Toss-up when we release our final election picks on Monday.• The concept of Occam’s Razor — the idea that the simplest explanation is sometimes the likeliest explanation — might be a […] Read more »
We Have A Lot Of New Polls But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening
After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened, with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in between. And although there are some outliers in both directions, they tell a fairly consistent story, overall: A steady race nationally, perhaps with some gains for […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Biden continues to hold nationwide advantage in final days of 2020 race
With the race for the presidency approaching its end amid a raging pandemic, Democratic nominee Joe Biden maintains a substantial lead over President Donald Trump nationwide, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. Among likely voters, 54% back Biden and 42% Trump. Biden has held a lead in […] Read more »
Biden’s Path to 270 Widens, Trump’s Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up
Less than a week out from Election Day and President Donald Trump is playing catch-up. In 2016, he won 30 states (and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District) and their 306 electoral votes. Today, just 20 states, worth 125 electoral votes, are safely in his column. Former Vice President Joe Biden is […] Read more »
COVID surge hurts Trump in Wisconsin; Biden leads in a closer Michigan contest
A surge in coronavirus cases has damaged President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign in Wisconsin, with growing criticism of his work on the pandemic and preference for former Vice President Joe Biden to handle it. Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents in […] Read more »