… Biden’s standing is considerably stronger than Clinton’s at the end of the 2016 race. His lead is larger than Clinton’s in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, more than twice Clinton’s projected […] Read more »
Biden has the advantage, but Trump will say otherwise
The choice is as clear as it gets. Do you believe President Donald Trump or your eyes? … I suppose it’s possible that all of the polls are wrong, even though they’re conducted by various survey research firms and publications using different methodologies. To see Trump winning, you must believe […] Read more »
More Than 80% of Likely U.S. Voters Decided on Presidential Choice Two Years Ago
In a striking assessment of how Donald Trump’s politics have produced a deeply divergent assessment of his presidency, a new University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of likely voters released today shows that more than 80% of the electorate had already decided which party’s presidential nominee they would support by the […] Read more »
Forecasting the US elections — as of Nov. 2
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
It’s Not Just Suburban Women. A Lot of Groups Have Turned Against Trump.
By now, you’ve probably heard that Donald J. Trump has a problem with women. Not just suburban women, but American women across age, race or education — a pattern that shows up in every poll. But the gender gap may not be as much about President Trump as many people […] Read more »
Biden narrowly leads Trump in six swing states before Election Day
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds narrow leads over President Donald Trump in six states the president aims to defend Tuesday in his bid for a second term, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll. The survey released Monday finds the former vice president holding at least a slim edge […] Read more »