The clearest message of this week’s complicated election results is that the trench is deepening between red and blue America. … With Biden’s near-certain popular-vote victory, Democrats have now won the most votes in seven of the past eight presidential elections, something no party has ever done since the formation […] Read more »
Interpreting the Early Results of the 2020 Election
What can the 2020 election teach us about polling and politics? On the afternoon after Election Day, Matt Grossmann hosts the first-ever live edition of the Science of Politics podcast with G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist to discuss where exactly the models went wrong (and what they […] Read more »
Hispanics’ Support For Trump Tied To Faith
As Democratic leaders consider why Joe Biden failed to attract more Hispanic support in this election, they might consider a key datapoint: Hispanic Christians, especially Catholics and evangelical Protestants, have drifted increasingly toward the Republican Party in recent years. Between 2018 and 2020, the share of Hispanic Catholics who approved […] Read more »
Post-Election National Survey
Public Opinion Strategies completed N=1600 interviews last night with 2020 voters. There is a lot more to learn and say about this election, but, here are five initial key takeaways from this work: CONT. Public Opinion Strategies The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and […] Read more »
Sifting Through the Results So Far
… Amidst the highest turnout in modern history, both Biden and President Donald Trump turned out their bases and battled in an epic duel that remains undecided. In our final pre-election assessment, we warned of the possibility that many polls could be missing a significant share of the Trump electorate, […] Read more »
Exit poll shows Biden gains in key groups, but with results awaiting the vote count
… Donald Trump improved in some gauges. Well fewer than half of voters, 44%, said he has the temperament to serve effectively as president – but that was up from 35% four years ago. And while 53% saw him unfavorably, that was down from 59% in 2016. At the same […] Read more »