The pollsters got Donald Trump wrong — again. When all the votes are tallied, Joe Biden isn’t going to win the popular vote by double digits. Trump lost Wisconsin by a point, not the 17-point defeat one survey suggested. And Trump obviously didn’t go down in an election night landslide, […] Read more »
2020 exit polls show a scrambling of Democrats’ and Republicans’ traditional bases
When Barack Obama won his second presidential term eight years ago, the exit polls clearly showed that he benefitted from what I called the “new American mainstream”—the growing voter blocs of youth, people of color, and the college-educated. That calculus changed in 2016, when Donald Trump shocked the political world […] Read more »
Polls underestimated Trump’s support, but not by as much as you might think
As returns from quick-counting states like Florida and Texas flowed in Tuesday night, pollsters quickly became targets in America’s easily triggered political culture. With Democratic challenger Joe Biden running well behind poll-created expectations in those states, accusations of “collapse” and “disaster” peppered the nation’s pollsters. President Trump added to the […] Read more »
Counties with worst virus surges overwhelmingly voted Trump
U.S. voters went to the polls starkly divided on how they see President Donald Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, with a surprising twist: In places where the virus is most rampant now, Trump enjoyed enormous support. An Associated Press analysis reveals that in 376 counties with the highest number […] Read more »
Exit Polls Point to the Power of White Patriarchy
… A larger percentage of every racial minority voted for Trump this year than in 2016. Among Blacks and Hispanics, this percentage grew among both men and women, although men were more likely to vote for Trump than women. Among Hispanics, the movements by sex were marginal and have held […] Read more »
Polling outlets draw fire after missing mark again
The polling industry and election forecasters suffered another embarrassing election night that will call into question the usefulness of public opinion surveys and horse race political coverage that appeared to once again underestimate President Trump’s support. Votes are still being tallied in critical battleground states, meaning the final verdict on […] Read more »