With Congress’ January 6 Select Committee slated to start work soon, Americans still overwhelmingly disapprove of the events they witnessed that day, a sentiment that includes big majorities of both Republicans and of former President Trump’s voters, too — and most do think there’s more to learn about it. But […] Read more »
The huge Democratic bet on ‘bricks and butter’
The spending proposals that Senate Democrats plan to begin advancing this week amount to a massive gamble that the party can simultaneously advance two of its longest-standing economic goals without generating a political backlash or overheating the economy. … In some ways, the Democrats’ bet that they can simultaneously turbocharge […] Read more »
2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls
… In October 2019, the Executive Council of AAPOR proactively convened a task force to examine the performance of pre-election polls in the 2020 elections. The Executive Council appointed 19 members to the Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling from industry, nonprofit organizations, media, and academia to ensure a diversity […] Read more »
How pollsters are trying to fix election polls after 2020
Polls in the final weeks of the 2020 election campaign were farther off the mark from the election results on average than polls in any election in decades, according to a new task force report released Monday. The analysis, from the American Association for Public Opinion Research, suggests partisan differences […] Read more »
2020 presidential polls suffered worst performance in decades, report says
Public opinion polls in the 2020 presidential election suffered from errors of “unusual magnitude,” the highest in 40 years for surveys estimating the national popular vote and in at least 20 years for state-level polls, according to a study conducted by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). The […] Read more »
Why the economy could make or break Biden’s presidency
Former President Donald Trump broke the mold when it came to how the economy correlated with election outcomes. More people approved than disapproved of his economic performance, yet his party lost the House in 2018 and the Senate and presidency in 2020. Now with President Joe Biden in the White […] Read more »