Donald Trump dropped from almost certain to highly likely this week on the strength of (1) Mitt Romney openly pushing to a brokered convention and (2) his surprising loss in Maine (coupled with closer than expected wins in Kentucky and Louisiana). CONT. David Rothschild, PredictWise Read more »
Fundamental Models and 2016 Presidential Election
Prediction markets move the fundamental model upward about 15 percentage points for each contested Electoral College election. I have run my presidential fundamental model (the underlying academic paper is joint work with Patrick Hummel) and posted the results on the PredictWise Presidential General Election forecast page. The key takeaway is […] Read more »
Something better than polls for political predictions? You bet!
What’s the best way to predict who will win the 2016 election? The answer may not be polls or pundits, but market forces. PBS NewsHour Read more »
State of election markets
With the Republican field down to just legitimate five candidates (and Ben Carson), Donald Trump continues to hold the top slot. The Democratic side saw very little movement over the last week, despite a dominant win by Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire. … Trump is heavily favored to carry South […] Read more »
PredictWise: New Hampshire Recap
New Hampshire happened exactly as expected with Donald Trump and John Kasich finishing first and second in the Republican primary and Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic primary. … Marco Rubio’s finish is a failure and a confirmation that his poor debate performance on Saturday, February 6 was interpreted poorly by […] Read more »
State of election markets: An interesting week saw Trump fall … then gain
An interesting and meaningful week saw Donald Trump fall after his results in Iowa and then gain after his results in New Hampshire (debate that is). Marco Rubio, after his strong third in Iowa, once again failed to capitalize on his moment by collapsing during the eighth Republican debate. But, […] Read more »