When considering the myriad of predictions before Brexit, when it comes to polling, financial markets, and prediction markets, there are certainly some bright spots and some concern: First, polling did pretty well, depending on what polls you cherry picked. … Second, financial markets did really bad at predicting. CONT. David […] Read more »
Here’s why pollsters and pundits got Brexit wrong
Late Thursday night, voters in the English city of Newcastle chose to remain in the European Union. Pollsters had predicted that voters there and elsewhere in Britain would have voted Remain by a considerable margin. In the end, Remain won by the tiniest of margins, taking 50.7 percent of the […] Read more »
Why the Surprise Over ‘Brexit’? Don’t Blame the Polls
… In a sense, the E.U. referendum joins a pretty long list of election forecasting errors. But this one was a bit different: It was not a cataclysmic polling failure. … If there’s a lesson here, it’s a fairly straightforward one: Don’t get too confident in contests when the polls […] Read more »
After Brexit and Trump, it’s time to stop trusting our guts and start trusting the polls
… We saw this during the Republican primaries. Donald Trump led poll after poll, but seasoned political observers simply refused to believe he would win. … And then, of course, he won. Brexit followed much the same path. Even as the polls tightened, elite sentiment remained confident. On the eve of […] Read more »
A study of Brexit
Investors around the world just bet billions on British polls. “A rally in European stocks Monday propelled the regional benchmark to its best daily percentage performance in nearly 10 months after polls showed support for the U.K. remaining in the European Union gaining ground,” MarketWatch proclaimed Monday. It’s a fascinating […] Read more »
Clinton Opens at 70% Against Trump
… Trump is trailing models of where the generic Republican should be at the start of the election. … He is going to start out at about 30% to win the election where the generic Republican versus the generic Democrat should be about 47% (or you could say Clinton is […] Read more »