Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders could be surging at just the right time. He’s ahead in some of the highest quality polls coming out of Iowa with a week to go until the caucuses. History suggests that a win in Iowa could allow Sanders to take the lead in the national […] Read more »
Meet the new top tier of Democratic contenders, same as the old top tier
The polling floodgates have finally opened! Over the past few days, Emerson, Marist, Suffolk, YouGov, the University of New Hampshire, Fox News, the New York Times and our very own Washington Post polls team have all released surveys of Democratic primary voters. This new data shows that, with less than […] Read more »
The Sanders Surge
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew assesses Sen. Bernie Sanders’s improvement in state and national polls just one week before the Iowa caucuses. They also debate whether reporting on former National Security Advisor John Bolton’s new book will pressure Republican senators to call witnesses in President […] Read more »
The Media Expectations Game Usually Hurts Nomination Front-Runners, But Not in 2020
The history of presidential nomination politics suggests that it’s a mixed blessing for a candidate to be considered a front-runner by the national media heading into the primary and caucus season. Of course, it’s better to be doing well in polls and fundraising, the usual metrics of pre-primary success, than […] Read more »
New Hampshire: Sanders surges to top in latest poll, takes lead over Biden as Warren slips
Bernie Sanders has moved to the lead in New Hampshire in a poll that shows a dramatic shake-up in the race, a new Franklin Pierce, Boston Herald, NBC 10 poll shows. Sanders has taken the lead in the poll of “likely” New Hampshire voters with 29% followed by Joe Biden […] Read more »
Biden’s Iowa Problem: Our Poll Suggests His Voters Aren’t the Caucusing Type
With one week to go until the Iowa caucuses, Joe Biden finds himself in a seemingly unimaginable position: needing to mobilize older voters who are usually the most consistent voters. This helps explain why recent polls diverge so much on Mr. Biden’s standing in Iowa. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York […] Read more »