Political contests can be illuminated in a variety of ways. We can analyze them through the prism of candidate images, issue dynamics or voters’ values, among many others. Perhaps the most important way to understand the current Democratic presidential primary contest is the simplest: through demographics. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman […] Read more »
Why an Iowa Poll Is Unfair to Bernie Sanders
I haven’t had much good news for Bernie Sanders supporters this year, so let me go out of my way to provide some today: There are very good reasons to question a new Monmouth poll that shows Hillary Rodham Clinton leading by 41 percentage points in Iowa. Most other polls […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Hires Pollster Who Worked on Dean Campaign
Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has denounced candidates who are overly poll-tested, a line of attack that has been used against Hillary Rodham Clinton in the past and one he had in his prepared text as a veiled reference to her at the Iowa Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner on Saturday […] Read more »
10 Days In October Revealed Hillary’s Prowess
For months the political punditry class was either blind or pretended it couldn’t see things that should have been clear when it came to Hillary Clinton’s strengths. When someone as well known as Hillary starts the race with 60% of the vote against a bunch of Democrats no one has […] Read more »
CBS/YouGov: Clinton on top in Iowa, gains in New Hampshire
Bolstered by Iowa Democratic caucus-goers who say she won the recent debate, Hillary Clinton now has an edge over Bernie Sanders in Iowa. She’s up three points there, after re-allocating the supporters of Vice President Joe Biden. Those caucus-goers were then asked who’d they support if Biden decided not to […] Read more »
Donald Trump Huge on Ego in Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll
Republicans planning to attend the Iowa caucuses are still sorting out their presidential preferences, but there’s one decision they’ve overwhelmingly made: Donald Trump is the most ego-driven in their party’s crowded field of candidates. CONT. John McCormick, Bloomberg Politics Read more »