Millennials are poised to give Hillary Clinton and Democrats a big margin in November’s election if they are engaged to vote and if progressives are smart in dealing with the third party vote. Millennial voters are in a very different place than they were two weeks ago, according to a […] Read more »
Given the choice for a third party, no one bails as fast as Bernie Sanders supporters
When Quinnipiac University asked voters ages 18 to 34 who they prefer in the presidential race, Hillary Clinton was the runaway favorite. Not runaway in the sense of will-Donald-Trump-get-any-votes-from-millennials-at-all, but runaway in the sense that Clinton had a 21-point lead. In 2012, President Obama won 18- to 29-year-olds by 23 […] Read more »
Millennial Voters May Cost Hillary Clinton the Election
… Clinton struggled among Millennial voters in her 2008 primary campaign, her 2016 primary campaign, and in the 2016 general election. Against Donald Trump, Clinton has two big advantages—a policy agenda that polls show largely matches Millennials’ own preferences, and an opponent even more unpopular with them than with the […] Read more »
Why you should be skeptical of wacky new studies about what sways elections
This has been a rough year for pollsters and pundits, with prediction after prediction going painfully awry. Even those supposedly unflappable data journalists have found themselves stepping in it. But it’s not just the journalists and pollsters. Since I’m a professor of statistics as well as a blogger who often […] Read more »
The Message in a Longtime Conservative Tilting Away From Trump, Toward Clinton
In this election cycle, polls have been the least reliable guide to understanding what voters are looking for in the next president of the United States. They tell us who is ahead and behind at a given moment but don’t convey what is going on behind respondents’ preferences. Still, I […] Read more »
Young voters flee Donald Trump in what may be historic trouncing, poll shows
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is consolidating the support of the Millennials who fueled Bernie Sanders’ challenge during the primaries, a new USA TODAY/Rock the Vote Poll finds, as Republican Donald Trump heads toward the worst showing among younger voters in modern American history. CONT. Susan Page & Fernanda Crescente, […] Read more »