A new CNN poll finds 75% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters want the party to nominate someone other than President Joe Biden in the 2024 election, a sharp increase from earlier this year. The poll comes as Biden’s approval ratings remain low and most Americans are discontented with the state […] Read more »
What Could Save Democrats From a Midterm Catastrophe?
At a time when very little if anything is “normal” about American politics, we have come to expect the unexpected. While the House looks very, very likely to flip into Republican hands and the Senate more likely than not, what kind of event might keep at least one if not […] Read more »
The polls you should ignore
Some pollsters barely wait until the ink on the ballots is dry in one election before they begin horse-race polling for the next election. Most wait a little longer, but here we are, in mid-2022, starting to see more and more 2024 primary polls. To be clear, I am referring […] Read more »
Confused about 2022? You should be
I’ve seen more than a few election cycles, but I’m not certain I have seen many that are more confusing than the one we are now in. Which “rules” of handicapping still hold in the current environment, and which fell by the wayside as our parties changed, our political institutions […] Read more »
A rough week for Biden. How much will it affect Democrats in November?
They say that bad news often comes in batches, and that was the case for President Biden this past week: a bleak new poll, another gloomy inflation report and a legislative setback. As he traveled through the Middle East, the home front remained on fire politically. … Biden being a […] Read more »
The Key Insights From Our First Poll of the 2022 Midterms
Which side has the most energy heading into November? More polls will come as the midterm elections near, but for now we’ve wrapped up our first New York Times/Siena survey, and here are some notable takeaways: Voters are not happy. Just 13 percent of registered voters said America was heading […] Read more »