Donald Trump’s Republican opponents seem worried. Many believe GOP voters are ready to move on from the former president, but we all remember the 2016 primary. In that race, Trump had roughly 35 percent of Republican voters behind him, and multiple opponents split an anti-Trump majority. Trump won state after […] Read more »
McLaughlin Poll: Trump Is Still the One to Beat
Our most recent poll of 1,000 likely U.S. voters was conducted between Dec. 9-14, 2022. This poll made news last week, because it differs significantly from several media polls released right before ours. Importantly, the poll shows former President Trump strongly leading the GOP field for 2024. In fact, our […] Read more »
Will Trump Succeed? Assessing his 2022 record and 2024 chances
Key Points• Donald Trump’s bid for a third Republican presidential nomination opens the 2024 presidential election.• The former president achieved only limited victories in the 2022 national and state elections.• But the structure of the Republican party provides him with many institutional advantages in the nomination race. CONTINUED Gerald Pomper, […] Read more »
What to Watch in 2023
Even as we look ahead to the new year, we can be assured that the political media focus will be trained, as it has for the last five years, on Donald Trump—his continuing legal and political troubles, the ‘reckoning’ within the GOP about the former president’s role in the party’s […] Read more »
The 5 ‘known unknowns’ that will define 2024
The powerful evidence for a possible criminal case that the bipartisan January 6, 2021, congressional committee presented against former President Donald Trump on Monday underscores the biggest uncertainty looming over the approaching 2024 presidential campaign. Many factors that will shape the 2024 contest, of course, remain impossible to know almost […] Read more »
How the midterms changed the 2024 primaries for Biden and Trump
Much of the conversation in the leadup to the midterms revolved around how Republicans were clamoring for former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, while Democrats wanted President Joe Biden to stay away. A little over a month after the election, however, the picture looks quite different. Biden is in his best […] Read more »