Key Points• It has been over a decade since an incumbent senator was successfully primaried in a regularly-scheduled election; though a few senators may be vulnerable, 2024 may continue that streak.• Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-CA) decision to retire removed one vulnerable senator from the primary conversation; Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) […] Read more »
Donald Trump did not win in 2016 because the establishment “split the field”
… Conventional wisdom about the 2016 primary has analysts stipulating that dividing the anti-Trump vote will allow him to win the primary again with plurality support, as he did last time around. After all, he only won 45% of the popular vote in the primary; surely if Ted Cruz, Marco […] Read more »
For Haley, the horse race is just getting started
We are still about a year out from anyone voting in any 2024 presidential primaries, but primary-poll-a-palooza is well underway. … But basing one’s assessment of what could happen on horse-race polls now is folly. Anyone following horse-race polls now is basically like a cat chasing a laser: You think […] Read more »
These are the GOP voters who may decide Trump’s fate in 2024
Donald Trump’s fate in the 2024 GOP presidential race may pivot on whether he can retain the surprisingly broad support he secured in 2016 from an unexpected group of Republican voters. Probably the biggest surprise in Trump’s march to the GOP nomination in 2016 was the large number of votes […] Read more »
Why Biden shouldn’t dismiss his negative poll numbers
President Joe Biden says he’s not ready to make a decision on whether to run for reelection. He did, however, dismiss polls that have cast a negative light on his 2024 chances, telling Telemundo, “Do you know any polling that’s accurate these days?” Biden is upset because of recent polling […] Read more »
Trump and the GOP Are No Longer One and the Same
… Anyone starting to write Trump’s political obituary would be well advised to put the pen down because, politically speaking, he does seem to have more than the proverbial cat’s nine lives. But the political environment is different from four years ago, and it cannot be reassuring for him or […] Read more »