The New Crossover Members of the House

Key Points• Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump.• There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 Democrats in Trump seats.• Democrats […] Read more »

Where History Rhymed and Where It Didn’t

Earlier this cycle I compared midterm elections to Mark Twain’s famous quip about history not repeating, but often rhyming. Each midterm election is unique, but there are also patterns and norms that are constants from one midterm to the next. With the dust now (almost) settled, Twain’s quote was a […] Read more »

What the data show about angry parents rocking the 2022 election

Angry parents of school-aged children were supposed to rock the gates of the establishment and send a message in the 2022 elections, at least according to the conservative narrative. “Woke” school curricula, extended COVID-19 restrictions in schools, and policies around transgender athletes were supposed to drive voters to the polls […] Read more »