… Polling is the lifeblood of politics. It drives press coverage and campaign decision-making. But what if polling is fundamentally broken? What if we are viewing politics through a fun house mirror? … Is the recent burst of Democratic optimism another case of inaccurate poll-fueled naivete? No. While polls may […] Read more »
Why high inflation doesn’t seem to be hurting Democrats
… Every month, Gallup publishes data on what Americans say is the most important problem facing the country. It’s an open-ended question (meaning respondents can say anything they want), and they’re allowed to give more than one answer. In August, 37% of adults said that an economic problem was most […] Read more »
NBC News poll shows where the midterm ‘persuadables’ live
In every election, there are solid Democratic voters and solid Republican voters — and then there are the voters who are less sure of where they stand. Those persuadable voters are often the difference between winning and losing and the NBC News poll shows they are a distinct group that […] Read more »
Abortion, Trump boost midterm prospects for Democrats
Democrats have pulled even with Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections, fueled by six-in-10 voters who disapprove of the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, by President Joe Biden’s approval rating improving to its highest mark since October and by Donald Trump’s favorability rating dropping to its lowest level in […] Read more »
Majority of Latino Voters Out of G.O.P.’s Reach, New Poll Shows
It has been nearly two years since Donald Trump made surprising gains with Hispanic voters. But Republican dreams of a major realignment of Latino voters drawn to G.O.P. stances on crime and social issues have failed to materialize, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena […] Read more »
The Economic Pit and the Political Pendulum: Predicting Midterm Elections
We were given the following prompt in July 2022 and asked to write a response: “The Economy, Stupid: Accepted wisdom has it that it’s the economy that matters to voters. Will other issues matter in the upcoming midterm elections, or will it really be all about the economy?” In the […] Read more »