Democrat John Fetterman is seen as understanding the concerns of ordinary Pennsylvanians more than Republican Mehmet Oz, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll of the U.S. Senate race. Fetterman maintains an overall advantage on being trusted more to handle key issues, including those prioritized by independents and Republicans. Fetterman […] Read more »
California: Both sports wagering initiatives trail, while Newsom maintains a comfortable lead
The latest Berkeley IGS Poll of Californians considered likely to vote in the November general election finds the two sports wagering initiatives, Propositions 26 and 27, trailing by significant margins six weeks before the election. The poll finds Proposition 27, the initiative to allow online sports wagering, trailing two-to-one (53% […] Read more »
Republicans hold a near-historic lead on a key midterm indicator
… We’re all used to polls that ask voters which issue is most important to them. Gallup puts the question to Americans open-ended, meaning a respondent can say anything from the mundane (e.g. inflation) to the inane (e.g. clowns). Gallup, unlike other pollsters, has another twist on that question. They […] Read more »
The disapproval derby: Biden Democrats vs. Supreme Court Republicans
What makes this midterm election different from every other? Most midterms are about the party in charge. But in this one, two parties count as incumbents: the Democrats who control the White House and Congress, and the Republicans who control the Supreme Court. GOP pollster Whit Ayres called my attention […] Read more »
Democracy Moneyball, 2022 Edition
… Politics is a game of active participation. If you feel passionate about a candidate, a party, or an issue, you can do the equivalent of run onto the playing field! You can go door-to-door or donate money, you can work for a campaign, and you can even run for […] Read more »
Democrats are lagging among Black voters, and that could cost them in November
… Black voters tend to be a forgotten part of the discussion about general elections. The reason is simple: They have been one of the most Democratic parts of the electorate for a long time. While Joe Biden in 2020 likely did slightly worse than Hillary Clinton among African Americans, […] Read more »