… Young adults have become an essential electoral asset for Democrats—and loom as a potentially decisive factor in determining whether the party can avoid the worst outcomes up and down the ballot this November. In particular, young voters may decide whether Democrats can preserve the fragile hold on the Senate […] Read more »
Which Way Is the Wind Blowing?
By this point in a typical midterm year, it’s pretty obvious which way the wind is blowing. Perceptions of the president and his party have been settled. The issue environment is also well-defined. This year, however, it feels as if both are in flux. But, are they? … By October […] Read more »
CNN Polls: Democrat holds edge in Arizona Senate race while Nevada contest has no clear leader
New CNN polling in two critical Senate battlegrounds finds that Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Blake Masters, while there is no clear leader in the race in Nevada between Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and her GOP opponent, Adam Laxalt. The Arizona poll […] Read more »
NPR poll shows Biden’s approval rating is up but there are warning signs for Democrats
With just over a month to go in the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats are starting to rally around President Biden, according to the latest NPR/Marist poll. Biden’s approval rating is up to 44%, which marks a third straight month of improvement. He had bottomed out in July at about 36%. […] Read more »
The 2022 Ad Wars
Key Points• To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September.• Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become a huge focus for Republicans, […] Read more »
Arizona: Mark Kelly has edge in Senate race that hinges on abortion, economy, immigration
Arizona is another battleground where strong opposing forces underpin the race. Democratic candidates enjoy stronger personal ratings, while Republican voters are thinking more about national Senate control. There’s a tough economy and desire for tougher border controls helping Republicans, versus abortion helping Democrats. And in this state that was so […] Read more »