With confidence and elan, President Joe Biden rallied allies abroad last week around the viability of 21st century democracy. Proving it here at home will be harder. Members of the transatlantic coalition — at meetings of the Group of Seven, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union — […] Read more »
Will straight-ticket voting upset the midterm dynamic in battle for Senate?
Political observers all know the party holding the White House tends to fare poorly during the midterm elections. That is why the combination of redistricting and the midterm dynamic clearly benefits House Republicans next year. But reapportionment and redistricting don’t affect the Senate, and more importantly, a recently developing electoral […] Read more »
Like His Predecessors, Trump Suffered Down-Ballot Losses — But the Declines Were Comparatively Modest
Key Points• Like every post-World War II president, Donald Trump witnessed a fall-off in his party’s numbers of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative seats during his presidency. That said, compared to recent presidents, the erosion on Trump’s watch was more modest than it was for his immediate […] Read more »
The Battleground: Voters’ Frustration with the State of American Politics
… As we have demonstrated for several years in the Battleground survey, the public perceives division in our country to be a major impediment to working together in our democracy and getting things done. And so long as calls for greater civility and bipartisanship are not cynically wielded as a […] Read more »
House Republicans have two critical advantages in 2022
… We live in an era of bitter, closely divided elections. And in 2022, Republicans have two advantages that might soon give them the edge in the House. The Republicans’ first advantage: The other party holds the White House. If Biden follows the path of other recent presidents, he’ll spend […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the Generic Ballot
Key Points• National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections.• The president’s party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each […] Read more »