538’s Nate Silver breaks down what President Joe Biden’s approval rating 6-months on the job means for Democrats’ narrow majorities in Congress. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Democrats See Edge in Early Senate Map as Trump Casts Big Shadow
Six months into the Biden administration, Senate Democrats are expressing a cautious optimism that the party can keep control of the chamber in the 2022 midterm elections, enjoying large fund-raising hauls in marquee races as they plot to exploit Republican retirements in key battlegrounds and a divisive series of unsettled […] Read more »
Social Volatility, Meet Political Volatility
We’ve been buffeted in recent months by the coronavirus pandemic, widespread protests over police violence that often turned into outright civil unrest, and of course, the rampage through the Capitol on Jan. 6. This is truly a unique and unfortunate moment in our nation’s history. But too few seem to […] Read more »
Election Day 2022 will be Independents’ Day
A few weeks ago, I suggested in this column that independent voters would decide when Joe Biden’s honeymoon is over. Well, Independents’ Day has arrived. While the president’s support from his Democratic base remains strong enough to offset Republican opposition, several recent polls have seen his job approval rating begin […] Read more »
The Intensity Factor
One of the hardest things to do in politics is to keep your voters engaged and motivated to vote in the midterm elections after your party wins a presidential election. This is especially true if your party controls all three branches of government. In midterm years, only the most committed […] Read more »
Why comparing the 2022 midterm dynamics to 1966 is risky
Democrats lost 47 House seats in the 1966 midterm elections, and that result still “haunts” them, wrote Washington Post columnist Charles Lane recently. But should it? After noting President Joe Biden’s solid job approval numbers and widespread predictions of a strong economic recovery over the next year and a half, […] Read more »