The last four times a president went into midterm elections holding unified control of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives, as Joe Biden and Democrats do now, voters have revoked it. It happened to Donald Trump in 2018, Barack Obama in 2010, George W. Bush in 2006 and […] Read more »
Idiosyncrasies of Senate Races Could Play to Dems’ Advantage
… At this point it would seem to take divine intervention, Republican self-destruction, or both to save the House Democratic majority. With every seat up simultaneously before voters every two years, the House is an amazingly accurate barometer of the prevailing political mood—something quite remarkable given how few congressional districts […] Read more »
What Role Will January 6 Play in The 2022 Midterms?
The following things can be true at the same time. First, the attack on the Capitol on January 6 was a dark moment in American history and one in which the former president bears responsibility. Second, the attack on the Capitol will not be a defining issue in the upcoming […] Read more »
UMass Amherst Poll on Election Reforms Shows Continued National Support for Expanding Voting Rights
A new nationwide University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll released today finds Americans continue to support a wide variety of election reforms, intended to make voting easier, while also maintaining a strong desire for photo ID requirements at voting booths. The poll of 1,000 respondents found majority support for reforms including […] Read more »
The Holiday Redistricting Flurry
Key Points• There was a flurry of redistricting activity over the holidays, with 7 additional states finalizing their congressional maps.• Republicans are up a little overall in the roughly 2/3rds of completed districts, while Democrats would have to sweep the Toss-ups — a very difficult task — just to achieve […] Read more »
2022 House Overview: Still a GOP Advantage, but Redistricting Looks Like a Wash
The surprising good news for Democrats: there are on track to be a few more Biden-won districts after redistricting than there are now — producing a congressional map slightly less biased in the GOP’s favor than the last decade’s. The bad news for Democrats: if President Biden’s approval ratings are […] Read more »