Virginia Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin notably improved the GOP’s standing with younger voters, moderates, independents and White women since the last gubernatorial election in 2017. Youngkin’s inroads among these swing voters, seen in an analysis of CNN’s exit polls from 2017 and 2021, made him the first Republican to win in […] Read more »
What Democrats and Pollsters Missed in New Jersey One of the state’s top experts gets candid.
So what just happened in New Jersey? After incumbent Democratic governor Phil Murphy scraped his way to reelection by less than two points on Tuesday, the question is top of mind not just in his state but for his party around the country. On one level, the answer is obvious: […] Read more »
An abnormal Republican Party was treated normally by voters in New Jersey and Virginia
Tuesday’s election results in New Jersey and Virginia — a big swing away from the party that controls the White House — were fairly normal. And that’s the scary thing. The president’s party generally struggles in off-year elections for two reasons. First, there is often a turnout gap that favors […] Read more »
What Democrats Need to Realize Before 2022
For Democrats, the clearest message from Tuesday’s bruising election results is that bad things trickle down when a president from your own party confronts as much discontent as President Joe Biden faces now. The Republican victory in the Virginia gubernatorial race and the unexpectedly close result in New Jersey’s—both states […] Read more »
Pollster: ‘I blew it.’ Maybe it’s time to get rid of election polls.
I blew it. The final Monmouth University Poll margin did not provide an accurate picture of the state of the governor’s race. So, if you are a Republican who believes the polls cost Ciattarelli an upset victory or a Democrat who feels we lulled your base into complacency, feel free […] Read more »
Voters don’t care about Donald Trump. They care about Joe Biden’s unpopularity
Democrats had hoped that former President Donald Trump could serve as a boogeyman. They wanted his continuing unpopularity to serve as a call to action to Democrats, even as President Joe Biden himself is unpopular. Tuesday night should serve as a warning that such a strategy doesn’t look like it’ll […] Read more »