It’s now less than two weeks until California’s recall election, and the latest polling suggests good news for Gov. Gavin Newsom. Polls show that an increasing percentage of voters say they’re going to vote “no” on the recall. And while the polling average still suggests the possibility of the Democratic […] Read more »
Key Opinion Shifts in California’s Recall Election
… California’s likely voters have held steady on two important measures over the last several months. In the latest PPIC Survey, California likely voters’ support for the recall of Governor Newsom (39% yes, 58% no) continues to fall short of the majority needed for his removal and replacement—a margin that […] Read more »
An Update on the California Recall
By the numbers, the effort to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom should have little to no chance of success. … Back in July, when Newsom announced that the special recall election would be held on September 14, things were looking pretty good for the Governor. COVID cases were down, Newsom’s […] Read more »
Why the California recall is within the margin of error and what that means for Gavin Newsom
The idea that California voters might recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom seems like a Republican fantasy and nothing more at first glance. After all, Newsom won by 24 points in 2018 and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, took the state by 29 points last fall. Now though, Democrats are worried […] Read more »
Pollsters confront tough survey landscape after 2020 flubs
Academic and nonpartisan pollsters surveying voters ahead of key election contests this year are trying new technology and massaging their existing methodology in hopes of correcting the errors that led them to underestimate Donald Trump’s level of support in the 2020 election. But those pollsters on the front lines today […] Read more »
What Virginia Tells Us About the Midterms
Off-year elections are a Rosetta Stone for analysts and operatives. While their political significance is universally overstated, these elections drive media narratives and offer clues as to how the political environment is shaping up for the midterm elections in 2022. In addition to the California recall election on September 14, […] Read more »