I have long argued that coronavirus was the only election issue that really mattered. History tells us that when a non-economic issue is topping the list of the nation’s problems in a presidential election year, then the candidate who is trusted most on that issue almost always wins. Coronavirus is […] Read more »
‘People Are Going To Be Shocked’: Return of the ‘Shy’ Trump Voter?
… In 2016, months of national polls confidently showed Hillary Clinton ahead, and set many Americans up for a shock on Election Night, when the Electoral College tilted decisively in Trump’s favor. Two pollsters who weren’t blindsided by this are Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly. … This year, both men […] Read more »
USA Today/Suffolk Poll: Ahead of Election Day, 3 of 4 voters worry about violence in a divided nation
Americans are increasingly worried about what will happen at the finish line of this year’s tumultuous election, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, including whether the voting will be peaceful and the outcome broadly accepted. Three of 4 voters express concern about the possibility of violence on Election Day. […] Read more »
Biden holds narrow lead in Florida
Joe Biden holds a slight 4-point lead over President Donald Trump in the battleground of Florida, fueled by his standing among seniors and independents, according to the final NBC News/Marist poll of the state before Tuesday’s presidential election. Biden is supported by 51 percent of likely voters, while Trump gets […] Read more »
WSJ/NBC News Survey Finds No Late Shift Toward Trump So Far
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016. When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Mr. Trump would win the 2016 election, […] Read more »
Georgia’s Senate Races Both Move to Toss-up
Key Points• Georgia’s two Senate races move to Toss-up.• They may be the only two races we leave in Toss-up when we release our final election picks on Monday.• The concept of Occam’s Razor — the idea that the simplest explanation is sometimes the likeliest explanation — might be a […] Read more »