The 2020 election is ending in a frenzy of swing-state travel and warnings of a chaotic vote count befitting this head-spinning year in American politics. But lower the din for a moment, and you’re left with a presidential contest that’s been remarkably stable. The same is true of POLITICO’s Election […] Read more »
What Trump Needs to Win: A Polling Error Much Bigger Than 2016’s
If the polls are right, Joe Biden could post the most decisive victory in a presidential election in three and a half decades, surpassing Bill Clinton’s win in 1996. That’s a big “if.” … Of course, it’s possible the polls could be off by even more than they were four […] Read more »
My predictions for the 2020 presidential and congressional races
… Democrats need not fear. This, my sixth published biennial election prediction essay, is perhaps my easiest: Former vice president Joe Biden will win comfortably unless we experience the greatest polling failure in modern history. Democrats will also gain control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House. […] Read more »
Why You Can’t Rely on Election Forecasts
… With all the anxiety about Tuesday’s vote, it’s understandable that many of us look to statisticians’ election models to tell us what will happen. If they say your candidate has an 80 percent chance of winning, you feel reassured. But after Donald Trump’s surprising victory in 2016 seemed to […] Read more »
What Voters in Battleground States Think About Climate Change
Climate change has emerged as a major issue for voters this year, both nationally and in crucial battleground states like Arizona and Florida, new polls from The New York Times and Siena College suggest. … In a handful of key swing states, The New York Times and Siena College asked […] Read more »
On Election Night, these are the first states to watch
Election Day may well turn into Election Week this year with late returns deciding the presidency, but there still will be a large group of Americans tuning in on Tuesday trying to read the tea leaves of the early results. For those politically-obsessed souls, the Data Download is happy to […] Read more »