Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
It’s Not Just Suburban Women. A Lot of Groups Have Turned Against Trump.
By now, you’ve probably heard that Donald J. Trump has a problem with women. Not just suburban women, but American women across age, race or education — a pattern that shows up in every poll. But the gender gap may not be as much about President Trump as many people […] Read more »
Biden narrowly leads Trump in six swing states before Election Day
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds narrow leads over President Donald Trump in six states the president aims to defend Tuesday in his bid for a second term, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll. The survey released Monday finds the former vice president holding at least a slim edge […] Read more »
How the exit polls will work in a pandemic
… Exit polling traditionally involves interviews with a randomly selected sample of voters conducted as those voters leave their polling places. Unlike pre-election polling, where voters can only be identified using screening questions or a history of voting on a voter file, meeting voters where they are ensures that those […] Read more »
There’s no such thing as a shy Trump voter
Trump voters are not liars. As a Democratic pollster and campaign strategist, I feel strange typing these words. But it is required to debunk the “shy Trump voter” myth. The shy Trump voter theory proliferates in political circles these days. This theory suggests that polls are failing to measure President […] Read more »
Final NBC/Marist state polls show close races in Pennsylvania and Arizona
Democrat Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in the all-important battleground state of Pennsylvania, while the two candidates are tied in Arizona, according to the final NBC News/Marist state polls of the 2020 presidential election. In Pennsylvania, which Trump won four years ago, Biden is ahead […] Read more »