President Elect Joe Biden will win the popular vote by perhaps 5 points and the Electoral College. He did it by reinforcing the Democratic trends in the new diverse states and country, winning Arizona and Georgia by razor thin margins. He did it by taking and holding onto the blue […] Read more »
How the Suburbs Moved Away From Trump
Suburban counties across the country turned away from President Trump in this election. … This graphic shows how these counties voted in preliminary results this year, compared with 2016. Collectively, they shifted up — toward Joe Biden. That movement, apparent across battleground states, has been crucial to his chances of […] Read more »
The Role Shifting Demographics Played In The Presidential Election
Latino voters helped to shape the presidential race in different ways. For the first time, Latinos became the second-biggest voting demographic after white people, and that has major implications. NPR News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up […] Read more »
The polling industry blows it again
The pollsters got Donald Trump wrong — again. When all the votes are tallied, Joe Biden isn’t going to win the popular vote by double digits. Trump lost Wisconsin by a point, not the 17-point defeat one survey suggested. And Trump obviously didn’t go down in an election night landslide, […] Read more »
Straight talk on the future of polling
I’m reading a slew of very similar postmortems for the polling business, in which I’ve worked my entire career. The story goes something like this: After a major miss in 2016, the industry just got 2020 just as wrong. Many say polls patently failed to find hidden or reluctant Trump […] Read more »
It’s not you, Nate. It’s us. (And maybe a little you.)
It may be time to break up with the Nates. They promised they’d changed. They promised they wouldn’t hurt us anymore. Or were they causing us to hurt ourselves? Either way, polling gurus Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight and Nate Cohn of the New York Times keep producing data sets that […] Read more »