What effect will Donald Trump’s ongoing legal woes have on his approval rating? And how has he maintained such a stable base of support among his party? What are the long-term repercussions of political division in the U.S., and how will the major political parties evolve in this climate? Ronald […] Read more »
Handicapping Trump’s Chances in 2020
… My hunch is that Trump will face a very difficult general-election fight if he chooses to run in 2020, but I would not lean on the 2018 midterm results as any kind of indicator. Clinton and Obama, for example, both had devastating midterm elections yet went on to victories […] Read more »
The Ohio Results Point to Democratic Strength in 2018—and a Showdown in 2020
The results in Ohio’s special House election Tuesday night reinforced the electoral trends that have driven American politics since Donald Trump’s election—and underscored the precarious political trade the president is imposing on his party. Republican Troy Balderson’s slim advantage over Democrat Danny O’Connor in a district Republicans have held without […] Read more »
Obama and Trump both bent demographic trends to win. Can Trump repeat in 2020?
The past three presidential elections have been head-snapping for many Americans: a sharp turn into what many people believed was the future of electoral politics with the elections of Barack Obama and an even sharper reversal with the victory of Donald Trump. People are still making sense of it all. […] Read more »
Trump approval sags in trio of Midwest states
In three politically important Midwest states — including two that were key in deciding the 2016 election — President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is below 40 percent, and Democrats hold a sizable lead for the upcoming congressional midterms, according to a trio of new NBC News/Marist polls. CONT. Mark […] Read more »
What The Rise Of Kamala Harris Tells Us About The Democratic Party
… Sen. Kamala Harris has not officially said she is running in 2020, but she hasn’t denied it, either, and she’s showing many of the signs of someone who is preparing for a run, including campaigning for her Democratic colleagues in key races and signing a deal to write a […] Read more »