The 2018 midterms remade Congress for the next two years, but they also hinted at a changing electoral map for the next presidential race. Broad gaps in exit poll numbers combined with the results from the midterm elections suggest that the battleground states of 2020 may look a bit different […] Read more »
The Midterms Sent an Unmistakable Message to Republicans
In last week’s election, the bill came due on the defining bet placed by congressional Republicans during the Donald Trump era. Led by House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, House and Senate Republicans made a strategic decision to lock arms around Trump over the past two […] Read more »
As Long as Trump Is President, Blue Texas Could Actually Happen
Enthusiastic Democrats can often be heard talking about how Texas is turning purple and maybe even blue. Professional strategists have mostly scoffed at this idea — after all, Donald Trump won Texas by more than 800,000 votes in 2016. But if President Trump decides to seek a second term — […] Read more »
Weak Spots in Democrats’ Strong Midterm Results Point to Challenges in 2020
Democrats had a great showing in the 2018 midterm elections. But even in such a strong year, they sometimes struggled to match their traditional support in electorally significant areas — with serious implications for 2020. Their triumph was a somewhat narrow one, concentrated in well-educated, affluent communities. Over all, the […] Read more »
2018 rewrote the main rule of US politics
So much for the old rule that all politics is local. … In virtually every state, Democrats last Tuesday displayed a clear advantage in densely populated, culturally and racially diverse white-collar metropolitan areas, while Republicans relied on elevated margins in the preponderantly white, religiously traditional, smaller places beyond them. In […] Read more »
The ‘invisible primary’ comes into view
The first rule of running for president is, do not talk about running for president — at least not until the last election is over. … But now, the 2020 omerta has finally lifted, setting off a rush of activity from presidential hopefuls as they try to get the jump […] Read more »