Ronald Brownstein: An analysis of the 2018 midterms and a look ahead to the primaries and general election in 2020. Conversations with Bill Kristol Read more »
Target 2020: the Independent Male Voter
Conventional wisdom holds that Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives because they got clobbered among college-educated women. They did take a beating in that demographic, but opposition from college-educated women doesn’t account for why the GOP lost. The real reason Republicans lost 40 House seats? They lost Independent […] Read more »
2020 Senate contests come into focus
After this week’s Mississippi Senate race, the 2018 midterms are now in the rearview mirror, and politically speaking, it’s time to turn attention to 2020 — not to the big presidential contest, but to the next set of Senate races. When compared with 2016 presidential data, the results from this […] Read more »
Democrats in 2020 don’t have the Republican safety margin
One of the central questions in understanding the Democratic presidential nomination race for 2020 is simply: Are Democrats now where Republicans were four years ago? Will the party be confronted next year with one or two dozen viable candidates on the debate stage, each with their own financial base of […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s Dimming Prospects
… The outcome of the 2018 midterm elections does not predict results in the 2020 presidential election, but it does signal geographic strengths and vulnerabilities going forward. After Democrats lost control of the House and Senate in 1994, President Bill Clinton adjusted his governing strategy by moving to the center […] Read more »
House 2020: The new crossover districts
… In winning back the House after eight years of GOP control, Democrats captured almost every Republican-held seat that Hillary Clinton carried in the 2016 presidential election. There were 25 such districts going into the election, and Republicans successfully defended only three (again, that’s assuming Valadao does eventually end up […] Read more »