One of the many reasons I think New England is great is that its elections are conducted — and its results are reported — at the city/town level, not the county level. That lets psephologists like me study them in greater detail, and one election I’m particularly interested in is […] Read more »
Trump approval down, slips with base; among potential 2020 challengers, Biden stands apart
While the longest government shutdown in U.S. history continues, President Trump’s approval rating is down, and there are cracks showing with his base. A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds Trump’s approval rating down and his disapproval rating up from a month ago. … The president also faces some significant headwinds […] Read more »
House 2020: Our initial ratings
… As we assess the House playing field for the first time, we think Democrats start as favorites to hold the House majority. There are a lot of little reasons that go into this assessment, but there’s one major one that really undergirds that analysis. Here’s goes: Even if President […] Read more »
The Shutdown Is Hurting Trump’s Approval Rating. But Will It Hurt Him in 2020?
The partial government shutdown is beginning to drag on President Trump’s approval rating, which is at its lowest point in months. … There shouldn’t be much doubt that the shutdown is behind the negative turn in Trump’s numbers. While there have been other newsworthy events over the past few weeks, […] Read more »
Women have already made history in the 2020 Democratic primary
… Women’s pivotal role in Democratic politics has never been more evident, with multiple women from the Democratic Party likely to take the plunge into the primary, each with her own unique appeal to voters. None of these women are at the top of the polls right now, though. All […] Read more »
How Kirsten Gillibrand Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
On Tuesday, under the hot TV lights of “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” New York’s Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tossed her hat into the presidential ring, declaring that she’s forming an exploratory committee. Gillibrand is one of several Democratic women expected to run, and her campaign will make its central […] Read more »