The 2020 presidential election polls were far from perfect. They had President-elect Joe Biden winning the election, which is worth something. Yet, nationally and in every single one of the 18 states where the final polling average was within 10 points in either direction, Biden’s standing relative to President Donald […] Read more »
How Trump won the economic message battle
President Donald Trump has always liked to talk about how strong the economy was under his watch. Although judging a president’s economic performance can be difficult because there’s only so much he can control, Americans at large, and voters specifically, seemed to agree with Trump. If the economy were the […] Read more »
A ‘cult president’? Breaking down Trump’s support
What does it mean to be a “cult president”— one whose supporters will believe and trust him no matter what any other government officials, academics, journalists, politicians, and “professional” experts say? Donald Trump could at the very least be characterized as one of the few presidents with a cult of […] Read more »
As Trump leaves office, 50% of Americans say he’ll be seen as ‘failed’ president
President Donald Trump leaves the White House next month with the country more sharply divided than when he moved in and amid caustic assessments of his record in office, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds. Fifty percent of Americans now predict history will judge him as a “failed” president. […] Read more »
Lessons from 2020 (that I can’t yet prove)
The year 2020 threw a lot at us. While (hopefully) the year will remain a fairly unique one in our history, surely there are some useful political lessons we can draw from it. So what follows is an incomplete list of lessons we’ve learned that I’m pretty sure are true […] Read more »
The Battle for the Battleground States
The last two successful Democratic candidates for president, President Barack Obama in 2012 and former Vice President Joe Biden in 2020, each won the national popular vote with 51 percent of the vote and beat their GOP opponent by four points (51-47). Yet, we also know these similar national popular […] Read more »