There are still 10 months to go until the first ballots will be cast in the 2020 presidential caucuses and primaries. The identity of the Democratic nominee, in all likelihood, will not be known for more than a year. Nevertheless, it is not too early to begin speculating about Donald […] Read more »
Democrats should stop chasing Trump’s base. They have their own white working-class voters.
… Oversimplifications aren’t merely errors: They can lead to party strategists and campaign officials making bad calculations about how to win over demographic groups, with serious consequences for election outcomes. And Republicans and Democrats alike shouldn’t forget that there are plenty of non-college-educated white Democrats — and that keeping them […] Read more »
‘Why Aren’t Democrats Winning the Hispanic Vote 80-20 or 90-10?’
The future success of the Democratic Party depends on the crucial — but unsettled — allegiance of the nation’s growing Hispanic electorate. … In the 2018 midterms, Democrats showed gains among Hispanic voters in most states, compared with 2014. Party operatives are concerned, however, about the slow rate of growth […] Read more »
The Joe Biden Media Frenzy
… The late 1980s and 1990s marked a high-water mark for a kind of giddy journalistic derangement over politicians’ adultery, drug use and draft avoidance — a somewhat arbitrary trio of offenses inflated into mortal sins. Candidates and nominees for various public positions were barraged with questions on these issues, […] Read more »
Why Identity Politics Could Be Good Politics For Democrats In 2020
… The case for Democrats both running on populism and centering their electoral strategy around appealing to Midwestern white voters without college degrees is fairly strong. After all, polls show that voters are more aligned with the Democrats on some high-profile economic issues than on some hot-button cultural ones. … […] Read more »
The 2020 Electorate
A durable finding from political science research is that people who self-identify as “Independent” but who admit to leaning towards one party or the other in a follow up question behave very similarly to their partisan counterparts. Increasingly, research is treating these Independent “leaners” as soft partisans and distinguishing “pure” […] Read more »