Let’s start here with a caveat: House generic ballot polling from a year and a half before a general election should not be treated as predictive. The 2020 House election depends on a lot of factors that remain unknowable, most importantly the tone-setting effect of the presidential race, which at […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s huge lead probably won’t last
Former vice president Joe Biden has risen significantly in Democratic primary polls since he formally entered the race last month. While he is now clearly the front-runner, there are many reasons to think the race will tighten considerably by the end of the year. CONT. Henry Olsen, Washington Post Recent […] Read more »
A populist revolt?
… Sixty percent say the country’s economic system mainly benefits those in power. At first blush, that seems like strong support for suggesting a potential populist revolt. But is it? How would we know? Is 60 percent a large number responding this way or a small number; something typical or […] Read more »
The Next President Should Not Be a Man
According to pollsters and political reporters, a dispiriting dynamic has taken hold of the early stages of the Democratic presidential primary: Voters are discounting female candidates as unelectable. … Emotionally, such reticence makes sense. Hillary Clinton’s loss to a cartoon misogynist left an enduring wound. Three years later, the memory […] Read more »
‘Magic moment’: Climate rises to the top for Democrats and gets a big new push
Climate change has recently shot to the top of polls of issues that Democratic voters care about in the presidential primary, rivaling for the first time longstanding bread-and-butter topics like health care — and a leading environmental group has plans to keep it that way. … “Health care and the […] Read more »
How Joe Biden is eating into Bernie Sanders’ coalition
Since officially jumping into the 2020 race less than two weeks ago, former Vice President Joe Biden has reshaped the Democratic primary. His polling numbers have risen from the high 20s to the low 40s since declaring his candidacy two weeks ago. In doing so, Biden has, for the moment, […] Read more »