Conventional wisdom says that the winner of the 2020 presidential race will be the candidate who best turns out his or her base voters. Sounds utterly sensible and, to my ear, utterly wrong. Just remember the outcome of the 2016 election, when swing voters — many of whom had voted […] Read more »
Trump’s chances in 2020 aren’t nearly as bad as people think
President Trump will officially announce that he’s running for reelection at a massive rally in Orlando on Tuesday. The early line on his chances: He’s not the favorite, but he’s far from down and out. … Trump has never polled above 44 percent job approval for any extended stretch of […] Read more »
Who Are The Swing Voters In 2020?
As Democratic candidates prepare for their first primary debates, President Trump is gearing up for the general election by launching his reelection campaign in Orlando this week. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew debates who the persuadable voters are in the 2020 race. The gang also […] Read more »
Facing negative polls and internal tensions, Trump plans to launch reelection bid with Orlando rally
As President Trump prepares to formally launch his reelection bid Tuesday, his allies are trying to tamp down headlines that depict his campaign as trailing top Democrats, beset by withering leaks and unable to keep internal tensions from spilling into public view. … Privately and publicly, campaign advisers fumed over […] Read more »
Four Years Ago Trump Was Seen as a Sideshow. Now He Is the Show.
As he rode down that escalator in June 2015, it felt like a lark, a curiosity, just another staged television spectacle. At most, many assumed that Donald J. Trump’s candidacy would be a sideshow, sure to be entertaining but hardly decisive. Four years later, as President Trump kicks off his […] Read more »
Trump’s internal polling fiasco points to a ragtag campaign
… First came the leaking of some alarming internal polling. After the data were alluded to in reports, Trump repeatedly denied they existed. Then ABC News got the actual numbers, showing Trump trailing Joe Biden by double digits in some hugely important states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. … Then […] Read more »