President Trump will officially announce that he’s running for reelection at a massive rally in Orlando on Tuesday. The early line on his chances: He’s not the favorite, but he’s far from down and out. …
Trump has never polled above 44 percent job approval for any extended stretch of his presidency. Unless that improves a lot, he’s not going to win the popular vote.
But as 2016 showed, he doesn’t have to win the popular vote to win an election. All he has to do is win 270 electoral votes, and with a coalition heavily tilted toward blue-collar white voters, he can do that with as little as 46 percent of the vote. He can hit that mark if he slightly improves his job approval and establishes a strong contrast with (read: run a very negative campaign against) his Democratic opponent. CONT.
Henry Olsen, Washington Post