Pollsters spent a lot of time figuring out why Donald Trump’s win was such a surprise in 2016 — but the reality is that there isn’t going to be a radical change in most election polling for 2020. Why it matters: Everyone should be more cautious in 2020 about what […] Read more »
Black leaders welcome renewed focus on race — stumbles and all
… The emergence of race as a central issue in recent days, on the presidential campaign as well as in Washington, has underscored the increasingly important role the subject is playing in the Democratic Party in the age of Trump and is pressuring the Democratic candidates to demonstrate their awareness […] Read more »
‘Electability’ is the most important, least understood word in the 2020 race
The most important factor in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary is also the most unknowable: Electability. Unlike primary voters in every other recent presidential election, Democrats are still so rattled by the 2016 election that they keep telling pollsters they’ll vote for whichever candidate they think has the best chance […] Read more »
Is 31 Biden’s Magic Number?
On this week’s mini-episode, Harry mines the historical archives to assess Joe Biden’s chances of holding on to his frontrunner position. The Forecast with Harry Enten Read more »
Will America Make Trump Great Again?
… Donald Trump is a bizarre man to have as president. He confounds the conventional wisdom about politics. But he’s also been subject to the typical rules of politics. When he does unpopular things, he becomes unpopular. Political gravity exists, and it has kept him at a disadvantage. But the […] Read more »
‘The Black Vote Is Not Monolithic’: 2020 Democrats Find Split Preferences in South Carolina
Joseph R. Biden Jr. enjoys a sizable advantage with black voters in South Carolina right now, and not just at lunch tables where they discuss candidates over freshly caught shrimp and fried fish. Recent polls have shown him with support from about 50 percent of African-American voters in the state. […] Read more »