For the past week, the media frenzy over President Trump’s Twitter attacks on four Democratic congresswomen of color has centered on the question of whether GOP leaders will rebuke the president’s divisiveness and open hostility to minorities and immigrants. Sticking with Trump, the theory goes, will further cleave the GOP […] Read more »
Will Trump’s Racist Attacks Help Him? Ask Blue-Collar White Women.
Donald Trump’s turn toward more overt racism in his “go back” attacks on four Democratic congresswomen of color rests on an unspoken bet: that the women who are part of his core constituencies will respond to his acrimony as enthusiastically as the men. But polling throughout Trump’s presidency has indicated […] Read more »
The 2020 Congressional Elections: A Very Early Forecast
… In order to assess the outlook for the 2020 House and Senate elections, I used a forecasting model that provides fairly accurate predictions of seat swing based on four factors: the number of seats currently held by the president’s party, the president’s net approval rating in late August or […] Read more »
‘Squad,’ impeachment enthusiasts leave Democrats in Trump districts to fend for themselves
… Increasingly, the media and the public see “AOC+three” as the new faces of the Democratic Party, a trend that clearly worries many party leaders who, rightfully, understand that if the Forgotten 31 actually ran on a socialist progressive platform, many can kiss their reelections goodbye. So, a new Democratic […] Read more »
2020 could be another ‘lesser of two evils’ election
Last weekend, I wrote about President Donald Trump’s recipe to win a second term in office. He, of course, has had an approval rating well below 50% throughout his first term. Therefore, Trump has to hope the Democratic nominee ends up being unpopular. This in turn would allow the 2020 […] Read more »
Presidential Candidates and Public Opinion About the Economy
There is certainly evidence that Americans’ take on the national economy has become more positive in recent years. Although the month-to-month numbers vary, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index has been as high over the past year as it has been since the end of the dot-com boom in the early 2000s. […] Read more »