Will a Third-Lane Candidate Emerge?

After driving more than 500 miles around Iowa over three days this past weekend and listening to almost 20 candidates, the two strongest impressions I received were just how fragile Joe Biden’s front-runner status is, and how Elizabeth Warren’s ascendancy continues to be underestimated. Granted, you didn’t need to drive […] Read more »

Most Democrats Are Excited by ‘Several’ 2020 Candidates – Not Just Their Top Choice

With more than five months to go before the first votes are cast in the 2020 presidential election, a majority of Democratic voters who express a preference for one of the candidates (63%) say they feel excited about several of the candidates currently vying for the party’s nomination. Far fewer […] Read more »

What early polls can — and can’t — tell you about who will be the Democratic nominee

Presidential primaries are notoriously hard to forecast. … But we’re not completely in the dark about who is going to be the Democratic nominee. National primary polls taken at this point in the process don’t have a great track record of picking the eventual winner. But one of the candidates […] Read more »

A Recession and the Fight for the Democratic Nomination

The possibility of a global economic slowdown and/or U.S. recession has lots of folks speculating on what it would mean for President Trump’s reelection prospects. Conventional wisdom assumes it would be a political death-blow to the President. Already struggling with anemic job approval ratings in what has been a solid […] Read more »