Former vice president Joe Biden remains in a strong position in the Democratic presidential nomination contest, receiving plurality support among potential Democratic primary voters (24%), with that support coming in equal share from numerous Democratic sub-groups and constituencies. … Between the president, the governor, and the lieutenant governor, Governor Abbott […] Read more »
Trump’s All About The Base, But He Likely Needs More Than That — Here’s Why
… While much time and attention is devoted to tracking the president’s approval rating nationwide, and his supporters can be found in any part of the country, all that matters in the end is the president’s standing state by state. Examining trends in individual states offers a clearer picture of […] Read more »
Why Warren Can’t Count On A ‘Women’s Vote’
So far, Elizabeth Warren’s Democratic primary strategy seems to be working pretty well. She’s been steadily gaining support since the spring, when she was polling around fifth place, and is now neck-and-neck with Bernie Sanders, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average. Early-state activists think she’s gaining momentum, the most plugged-in subset […] Read more »
A Look At Swing Voters Leading Up To The 2020 Election
More than one year out from the general election, there are many factors that could influence voters’ decisions to either vote for President Trump or the Democratic nominee or even stay home on November 3, 2020. These factors include the characteristics of the eventual Democratic nominee, views of President Trump, […] Read more »
Black votes will define electability for Democrats
For all the strategic calculations, sophisticated voter targeting and relentless talk about electability in Iowa and New Hampshire, the Democratic presidential nomination will be determined by a decidedly different group: black voters. African Americans will watch as mostly white voters in the first two contests express preferences and winnow the […] Read more »
House Ratings Changes: NC-9 do-over election going down to the wire; MN-7 moves to top tier of GOP targets
Key Points• We’re moving the NC-9 special from Leans Republican to Toss-up with less than a week to go until the election. A confluence of factors makes the race too close and unpredictable for us to call. • We’re also moving the NC-3 special election from Safe Republican to Likely […] Read more »