This week, the Biden campaign put reporters and political insiders on notice: despite being the longstanding frontrunner in national polls, they are not counting on winning the Iowa caucus. The Biden campaign seems to have taken notice of Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s steady rise in the polls over the summer. In […] Read more »
Dare We Dream of the End of the G.O.P.?
Toward the end of his new book, “R.I.P. G.O.P.,” the renowned Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg makes a thrilling prediction, delivered with the certainty of prophecy. “The year 2020 will produce a second blue wave on at least the scale of the first in 2018 and finally will crash and shatter […] Read more »
How Joe Biden attracts both black voters and racially ‘resentful’ voters
By many measures, the two major political parties are moving in opposite directions when it comes to racism and sexism. As researchers have repeatedly documented, anti-black prejudice, anti-immigrant attitudes and sexism divided Democratic and Republican voters in 2016 more sharply than ever before — with people with stronger racist and […] Read more »
Texas Is Changing—Quickly
… The fundamental force that has shaken the GOP’s hold on Texas is that for the first time in decades, voters there are behaving in patterns familiar from other states. Democrats are showing gains in the state’s diverse, well-educated metropolitan areas, even as Republicans retain a crushing lead in small-town, […] Read more »
Sun Belt or Rust Belt? Democrats search for path to power
As Democrats try to win control of the White House and the Senate in 2020, they face a geographical puzzle — the path to the presidency may conflict with the one to a Senate majority. Democrats’ best shot at the White House is to win back their old turf — […] Read more »
Conservatives already won the culture war. Their greatest risk is overreach.
For both conservatives and liberals, the 2020 election feels like a pivotal moment in America’s long-running culture wars. That’s understandable, but mistaken. On the fundamental question of the culture war — how much Americans respect and want to preserve our core institutions — conservatives underestimate their strength. The biggest risk […] Read more »