We’re practically raised to believe that debates impact election results in big ways. Millions watch, candidates spend countless hours preparing, media can’t stop talking, and writing, about them. And, after all, we’re taught debates are the way we should be making voting decisions. They’ve just got to be game changers. […] Read more »
All Eyes Are Shifting to the Senate
This column argued six months ago that to the extent the focus of the political world wasn’t trained on the presidential election, it was on whether Democrats would retain their newly won House majority. It then argued that the Senate would eventually become the biggest non-presidential story—and that appears to […] Read more »
NBC/WSJ poll: Biden leads Dem 2020 field, Warren’s support grows
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., continue to top the Democratic 2020 presidential field after last week’s debate — in a race for the nomination that breaks along ideological and racial lines, according to a national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday. The survey also […] Read more »
Why CBS Battleground Tracker of 2020 Convention Delegates Misleads
CBS’s coverage of the Democratic primary is highly misleading in its estimates of the number of convention delegates that each candidate might win “through Super Tuesday.” Why? CBS’s Battleground Tracker implicitly assumes all voters will cast their ballots at roughly the same time. That is not the case, and it […] Read more »
Why race is moving center stage for 2020
An escalating cycle of action and reaction between President Donald Trump and the Democratic presidential contenders is thrusting issues of race relations and American identity to the center of the developing 2020 campaign. … In 2020, the contrast between the nominees on issues of race relations will likely be as […] Read more »
Beware confirmation bias with the 2020 presidential race
“The next debate is do or die for many Democratic hopefuls.” Andrew Yang “is on fire.” Elizabeth Warren is “surging.” “It’s a three-way race.” I’m betting you can think of a long list of other things you’ve heard on television or read in print to explain what is going on […] Read more »