A major overall theme in American political life is the nationalization of politics. How people feel about the president is bleeding down the ballot to an extreme degree, to the point where congressional expert Gary Jacobson observed that the 2018 midterm was “the most sweeping national referendum on any administration […] Read more »
Republicans Hunt for Safer Ground in Shifting Southern California
For most of us, America’s Finest City, San Diego, is known for its agreeable climate, world-famous zoo, and picturesque parks. Travel a few miles east, however, and political junkies will find a game of congressional musical chairs developing. CONT. J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Read more »
Yes, Americans believe the House should be trying to impeach President Trump
Impeachment consideration has grown in the last two months. A plurality of Americans in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll now say the US House of Representatives should try to impeach President Donald Trump. Some Independents, who in July opposed an impeachment attempt, appear to have changed their minds, and Independents are […] Read more »
Why Black Voters Prefer Establishment Candidates Over Liberal Alternatives
Black voters effectively delivered Hillary Clinton the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016. She and Sen. Bernie Sanders ran about evenly among white voters, but black voters overwhelmingly backed Clinton. So did the Democratic establishment. That team-up — black voters and the more establishment candidate — is not unusual. We don’t […] Read more »
Democrats Risk a Referendum on Impeachment, Rather Than on Trump
Democrats now seem to be hurtling toward something that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and many other party leaders had desperately tried to avoid: impeaching President Trump. Pelosi has probably spent more time with Trump than any House Democrat. It’s safe to say she can’t stand the man. She just thought […] Read more »
How the Average Joe (and Jane) Could Wind Up Stopping Warren
Elizabeth Warren is gaining. She has breached 20 percent of the vote in recent national surveys and might hold a narrow lead in Iowa and New Hampshire. The prediction markets now consider her a clear favorite to win the nomination. It can be hard to see how her Democratic rivals […] Read more »