Is Texas a purple state now, and if not, how soon will it be? Continuing this series investigating the Lone Star State’s evolving partisanship, in this post I consider whether Texas could be competitive in the 2020 presidential election—and what, specifically, we might expect in terms of the impact of […] Read more »
For Low-Polling Democratic Candidates, It’s All Within the Margin of Error
What a difference a percentage point makes — especially when all you’ve got is one or two of them. To qualify for what will be a supersized Democratic debate this month, presidential candidates had to receive at least 2 percent support in four polls sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee, […] Read more »
This Week in Impeachment: Does Trump Need a Good Strategy?
Over the two weeks or so since the impeachment of Donald Trump became likely, a series of news articles has chronicled Trump’s strategic and tactical response to his new predicament. Anyone wondering whether Trump would adopt Bill Clinton’s playbook from 1998—acknowledge impeachment as little as possible in public; portray yourself […] Read more »
Perilous times for Trump: By 45%-38%, Americans support impeaching him over Ukraine allegations
Americans by a 45%-38% plurality now support a vote by the House of Representatives to impeach President Donald Trump, a USA TODAY/Ipsos Poll finds, as allegations continue to swirl around an embattled White House. By a similar margin, 44%-35%, those surveyed say the Senate, which would then be charged with […] Read more »
Democratic Nominees Often Secured Lead Late in Campaign
… Presidential nominees leading throughout the primary campaign has been the exception, not the rule, for Democratic candidates over the past six decades. This has been the case for a variety of reasons — including because some eventual nominees didn’t enter the race until late in the campaign or because […] Read more »
Why Trump’s Favorite 2016 Map Should Scare Him
This week, as President Donald Trump went on the offensive to bolster his case against impeachment, he tweeted a county-by-county map of the 2016 presidential race that showed a vast sea of red interrupted only by a few blue inlets, mostly along the coasts. The map, captioned with the headline […] Read more »