In the wake of the 2020 election, Democratic strategists are worried — very worried — about the future of the Hispanic vote. One in 10 Latinos who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 switched to Donald Trump in 2020. Although the Hispanic electorate is often treated as a bloc, it is […] Read more »
Party brand vs personal brand
… In the election aftermath, Reps. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) famously sparred over the party’s direction. Note that Spanberger outperformed Joe Biden in her District by just 1 percentage point, while Ocasio-Cortez ran 1.7 points behind the president. … This is neither to praise, nor condemn, either […] Read more »
How Republicans misunderstand the 2020 turnout story
Numerous Republican state legislatures are trying to pass new voter restriction legislation (e.g. limiting absentee and early voting). Meanwhile, Democrats in Congress are trying to pass laws that expand access to the ballot box. The moves from both camps come after an election with record turnout in which there were […] Read more »
Why Did Republicans Outperform The Polls Again? Two Theories.
… This is a relatively new phenomenon, but pollsters have increasingly found evidence of partisan nonresponse — that is, particular types of Republicans are just less likely to take surveys, so these voters’ opinions are not reflected in survey data. This was especially relevant in understanding Trump’s support, too, as […] Read more »
What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling
Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is […] Read more »
The Republican Party Changed Forever — For The Better — Under President Donald Trump
In 2020, President Donald J. Trump created one of the greatest voter coalitions in American political history, bringing millions of new voters into the Republican Party and expanding the GOP’s vote among African Americans and Hispanic Americans. The electoral votes that decided this election were determined by a mere 44,000 […] Read more »