In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew assesses Sen. Bernie Sanders’s improvement in state and national polls just one week before the Iowa caucuses. They also debate whether reporting on former National Security Advisor John Bolton’s new book will pressure Republican senators to call witnesses in President […] Read more »
The Media Expectations Game Usually Hurts Nomination Front-Runners, But Not in 2020
The history of presidential nomination politics suggests that it’s a mixed blessing for a candidate to be considered a front-runner by the national media heading into the primary and caucus season. Of course, it’s better to be doing well in polls and fundraising, the usual metrics of pre-primary success, than […] Read more »
New Hampshire: Sanders surges to top in latest poll, takes lead over Biden as Warren slips
Bernie Sanders has moved to the lead in New Hampshire in a poll that shows a dramatic shake-up in the race, a new Franklin Pierce, Boston Herald, NBC 10 poll shows. Sanders has taken the lead in the poll of “likely” New Hampshire voters with 29% followed by Joe Biden […] Read more »
Biden’s Iowa Problem: Our Poll Suggests His Voters Aren’t the Caucusing Type
With one week to go until the Iowa caucuses, Joe Biden finds himself in a seemingly unimaginable position: needing to mobilize older voters who are usually the most consistent voters. This helps explain why recent polls diverge so much on Mr. Biden’s standing in Iowa. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York […] Read more »
Economic prosperity boosts Trump in election poll, counterweight to his unpopularity
Economic prosperity is boosting Donald Trump’s political prospects, helping the relatively unpopular president to a competitive position against his potential Democratic opponents in the fall election, the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds. Key to Trump’s opportunity is a rise in economic confidence. One year before he took office, 63% […] Read more »
Election Update: Sanders Is On The Upswing
Up until this point, we’ve been pretty hesitant to read too much into any one of the post-debate polls — largely because for each poll that showed Sen. Bernie Sanders on the upswing, there was another poll that showed him on the downturn. But now with four more national polls […] Read more »